DBT Bureau
Pune, 10 Feb 2026
Copper prices edged higher, settling up 0.55% at ₹1,249.65, supported by expectations that China will expand its strategic copper reserves and consider a state-led commercial stockpiling system. This policy signal helped offset concerns around rising visible inventories. Stocks in LME-approved warehouses have climbed to 184,300 tonnes, up 25% since early January, while inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have surged more than 60% since mid-December, reaching 248,911 tonnes, the highest level since March 2025. Comex inventories have also continued to trend higher, underscoring near-term supply comfort. Looking ahead, longer-term fundamentals remain constructive. Chile’s copper commission, Cochilco, raised its 2026 average price forecast to $4.95 per pound, citing expectations of strong demand, a weaker U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks. It also sees prices averaging $5.00 per pound in 2027. Chilean output is projected to rise to 5.61 million tonnes this year, while Peru’s production fell sharply, down 11.2% year-on-year in November, offering some counterbalance to higher supply. Meanwhile, the ICSG reported a widening surplus in the refined copper market, with a 94,000-tonne surplus in November, reflecting output continuing to outpace consumption. Technically, copper is seeing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 2.27% to 15,868 alongside a ₹6.8 price gain.
Aluminium prices edged slightly higher, settling up 0.19% at ₹312.8, supported by tightening global supply conditions and improving demand sentiment. Supply concerns have been reinforced by production disruptions at key smelters in Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia, while investor confidence has improved on early signs of economic stabilization in China. Goldman Sachs also turned more constructive, raising its first-half aluminium price outlook sharply to $3,150 per tonne, citing low global inventories, power constraints for new smelters in Indonesia, and steady global demand growth. However, gains were capped by rising inventory pressure, particularly in China. Social aluminium inventories are expected to peak after the Chinese New Year at the highest level in nearly three years. Refined aluminium production in China remained robust, hitting a record 3.87 million tonnes in December, up 2.9% year-on-year, while full-year 2025 output rose to over 45 million tonnes, despite capacity restrictions. Aluminium product output also reached a record high, highlighting ample downstream supply. Inventories reflected this trend, with SHFE warehouse stocks rising 13.1% week-on-week, while stocks at major Japanese ports edged higher. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest falling 1.95% to 3,978 as prices rose by ₹0.6.
Source: Kedia Advisory
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