DBT Bureau
Pune, 18 Dec 2025
Gold Outlook 2026
Gold witnessed one of its most powerful rallies in recent history during 2025, underpinned by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, sustained ETF inflows, a weaker U.S. dollar, and continued accumulation by global central banks. These structural drivers are expected to remain broadly supportive through 2026, providing a solid long-term foundation for prices. However, a more measured approach is warranted as investor positioning appears crowded and FOMO-driven participation has increased. While the fundamental backdrop remains strong, some key catalysts may gradually mature—such as progress on geopolitical de-escalation, profit-booking by ETF investors, or a temporary recovery in the U.S. dollar. This could result in intermittent price or time-based corrections. On the downside, gold may test support near USD 3,420, with the risk of a deeper 15–20% adjustment not entirely ruled out. Despite near-term volatility, gold retains 10–12% upside potential $4820, with prices gradually approaching the ₹1,50,000 level. From a portfolio standpoint, investors should continue to hold gold and add exposure in a disciplined SIP manner. Gold ETFs remain the preferred investment vehicle, while physical gold is better suited for consumption or ceremonial requirements.
Silver Outlook 2026
Silver delivered an exceptional rally in 2025, with prices rising nearly 130%, reaffirming its reputation for sharp, momentum-driven moves. Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook remains positive but far more volatile than gold. The metal carries further upside potential of 20–25%, with MCX prices seen in the ₹2,45,000–₹2,50,000 range and international prices around USD 72.5–74. However, history suggests caution, as silver has a tendency to correct swiftly after steep rallies, as witnessed in 1980 and 2011. Corrections of 28–30% cannot be ruled out, particularly if ETF-driven investment demand weakens amid better opportunities elsewhere. Structurally, this cycle is supported by robust industrial demand from clean energy, solar, data centres, and electrification. Silver’s growing role as a “digital-age metal” strengthens its long-term case, with USD 100 remaining a realistic long-term target if supply constraints persist.
