DBT Bureau
Pune, 7 Dec 2025
China’s soybean production for MY 25/26 remains pegged at 19.9 million metric tons, supported by a slightly larger planted area and favorable weather across key growing regions. Imports are expected to ease to 106 MMT as authorities continue efforts to limit dependency on foreign supplies. Rapeseed imports, meanwhile, are forecast to drop significantly after China imposed antidumping duties on Canadian canola. Recent bilateral progress followed meetings between Presidents Trump and Xi, leading Beijing to reduce soybean tariffs, lift non-tariff barriers, and reinstate U.S. shippers suspended earlier in 2025. Harvest conditions have been mostly favorable, with Heilongjiang—China’s top producer—reporting 99.2 percent completion by late October and no major soybean damage despite heavy rains in parts of the country.
China’s soybean outlook steady as import controls tighten in MY 25/26
- Soybean production forecast unchanged at 19.9 MMT on 9.96 Mha area
- Imports projected at 106 MMT, down 1 MMT as Beijing curbs growth
- Rapeseed imports seen falling sharply after duties on Canadian canola
- Recent US–China agreements ease tariffs and revive U.S. soybean shipments
- Favorable weather supports harvest progress, with no major impact on soybeans
