DBT Bureau
Pune, 5 Dec 2025
Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research released its latest daily outlook, providing updated trading ranges and market cues for gold, silver and crude oil.
Gold prices edged lower by 0.29%, settling at ₹130,078 as traders booked profits and adopted a cautious stance ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Markets are awaiting key U.S. data releases, including the delayed September PCE report, which may offer clearer cues on the Fed’s policy path. The November ADP report showed an unexpected 32,000 job loss versus expectations of a 10,000 gain, marking the sharpest hiring slowdown since 2023. This further supported dovish expectations, with rate futures now pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a 25 bps cut next week. Geopolitical tensions also lent mild support, as U.S.–Russia talks on the Ukraine conflict concluded without progress. Central banks continued their strong buying trend, adding a net 53 tonnes of gold in October— the highest monthly addition since November 2024. Poland and Brazil led purchases, while China extended its buying streak to a 12th month, reaching 2,304 tonnes. Russia was the only net seller, trimming 3 tonnes. However, high global prices weakened physical demand across key Asian hubs. Indian dealers offered discounts up to $18/oz despite the wedding season, while China saw mixed premiums and discounts due to the removal of VAT exemption on gold purchases. Singapore and Hong Kong traded near par to small premiums. Technically, fresh selling pressure is evident as open interest increased 0.11% to 13,025 while prices fell 384. Support is placed at ₹129,360, with a break exposing ₹128,645. Resistance is at ₹130,795, above which ₹131,515 may be tested.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹128645- ₹131515.
- Gold fell as investors booked profits and turned slightly cautious, awaiting clearer signals ahead of FOMC meeting.
- November ADP reading showed an unexpected loss of 32,000 private sector jobs, far below expectations for a 10,000 gain.
- However, Geopolitical tensions offered some support, after US-Russia talks on the Ukraine war ended without progress.
Silver prices retreated sharply by 2.31%, settling at ₹178,138 as traders booked profits and reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook for 2026. Weak U.S. labor market data strengthened expectations of a 25 bps rate cut next week. ADP data showed an unexpected decline in private payrolls, while Challenger job cuts rose 25% year-on-year, with U.S. employers announcing 71,321 layoffs in November—the highest for the month since 2022. Although layoffs eased from October’s 153,074, the trend reflects mounting labor market stress and supports the case for monetary easing. Despite the price decline, silver fundamentals remain supportive. Silver-backed ETFs added nearly 200 tonnes, pushing global holdings to their highest level since 2022. A record amount of silver flowed into London last month, easing tightness in the key OTC hub, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped to their lowest since 2015. China exported more than 660 tonnes of silver in October—the highest ever—to counter domestic shortages, yet liquidity concerns persist. London vault holdings climbed to 26,255 tonnes in October, rising 6.8% month-on-month after an inflow of 1,674 tonnes helped ease borrowing rates, though they remain elevated. Technically, fresh selling pressure is evident with open interest rising 5.59% to 14,599 as prices fell 4,214. Immediate support stands at ₹175,705, with a further downside test likely at ₹173,265. Resistance is now placed at ₹181,735, and a break above this level could push prices toward ₹185,325.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹173265- ₹185325.
- Silver dropped on profit booking as markets continued to gauge the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook for the upcoming year.
- US-based employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November 2025, the highest for the month since 2022.
- Data showed silver-backed ETFs added about 200 tons, lifting total holdings to the highest level since 2022.
Crude oil prices edged higher by 0.50% to ₹5,383, supported by persistent geopolitical risks as hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace resolution faded. Russia’s firm stance on retaining captured territories and Ukraine’s unwillingness to concede has diminished expectations of any ceasefire. Additional support came from Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including a hit on the Druzhba pipeline in Tambov—the fifth such attack—though flows to Hungary and Slovakia reportedly remained unaffected. However, the upside remained capped by concerns of weak global demand and rising oversupply. U.S. crude inventories increased by 0.574 million barrels last week, against expectations of a draw, while gasoline stocks surged by 4.52 million barrels. Distillate inventories also fell less than forecast. At the same time, U.S. oil production climbed to a record 13.84 million bpd in September, with New Mexico and offshore Gulf output also hitting multi-year highs. Globally, the IEA and Fitch Ratings signaled widening market surpluses, with supply projected to outpace demand significantly in 2026. OPEC+ maintained its Q1 2026 production levels, reflecting caution amid fears of a deepening supply glut. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest dipped 0.68% to 13,203 while prices gained 27. Crude oil now finds support at ₹5,326, with further weakness likely toward ₹5,269. Resistance stands at ₹5,419, and a move above this level could open the path toward ₹5,455.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5269- ₹5455.
- Crude oil soared as expectations of an end to the Russia-Ukraine war dimmed.
- Gains also seen supported by Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil assets and stalled peace talks.
- Ukraine struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, the fifth attack on the route supplying Hungary and Slovakia.
