DBT Bureau
Pune, 28 Nov 2025
Zinc prices slipped 0.7% to settle at ₹299.1, pressured by rising inventories in LME-registered warehouses, which have climbed 47% in November to 49,925 tons. This build-up eased immediate supply concerns, although the cash-to-three-month premium remains elevated at $135 per ton, signalling tightness in nearby availability. Weak economic indicators from China also weighed on sentiment, reducing demand expectations, while fading hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut added further pressure. Despite this, downside remained limited as the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September, down from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG. The global refined zinc market recorded a 120,000-ton surplus in the first nine months of 2025, slightly higher than the surplus a year earlier. SHFE-monitored zinc inventories fell 0.54%, reflecting a mild drawdown in Chinese domestic stocks. Meanwhile, zinc inventories outside China remain historically low. China’s refined zinc production trends show volatility: September output declined 4% month-on-month, though it was up over 20% year-on-year. China’s refined zinc exports surged to 8,519 tons in October, up 244% from September, as smelters targeted overseas markets amid weak domestic demand and tight LME conditions. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.79% to 2,684 and prices declining by 2.1. Support is placed at ₹297.9, with further weakness likely toward ₹296.7. Resistance is seen at ₹301, and a breakout above could lift prices toward ₹302.9.
Market Analysis:
- Zinc trading range for the day is ₹296.7-₹302.9.
- Zinc dropped as rising LME zinc stocks at 49925 tons, showing a gain of 47% since the start of November.
- Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August
- Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.
Aluminium prices slipped 0.64% to settle at ₹270.45, pressured by concerns over demand in China, the world’s largest metals consumer. Weak economic signals and rising SHFE aluminium inventories, which increased 7.67% from last Friday, weighed on market sentiment. However, the downside remained limited due to growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut in December, which supported broader commodities. Supply-side constraints also underpinned prices, with Chinese smelters nearing government-imposed capacity caps and authorities reiterating their priority of preventing overcapacity to curb deflationary pressures. On the global front, primary aluminium output rose 0.6% year-on-year in October to 6.294 million tonnes, according to the IAI, although production fell 9% from September. Japanese port inventories declined 3.6% to 329,100 tonnes, signalling steady demand in Asia. Supply disruptions continued to support prices: Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended a potline due to electrical failure, Century Aluminium curtailed output by two-thirds at another Icelandic facility, and Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia. China’s trade data reflected healthy demand—imports of unwrought aluminium and products surged 10.4% YoY in October, following a strong 35.4% rise in September.. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 6.44% to 3,166 and prices down 1.75. Support lies at ₹269.3, with further downside toward ₹268.2. Resistance is at ₹272.1, and a breakout could lift prices to ₹273.8.
Market Analysis:
- Aluminium trading range for the day is ₹268.2-₹273.8.
- Aluminium dropped as concern about demand in top metals consumer China weighed on the market.
- However downside seen limited amid growing prospects of a December U.S. rate cut following dovish signals from central bank officials.
- Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% year on year to 6.294 million tonnes – IAI
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd., India’s Premium Research House
