DBT Bureau
Pune, 27 Nov 2025
Gold on 26th Nov settled 0.56% higher at ₹1,25,931, supported by rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, as delayed U.S. economic data pointed to weakening consumer momentum. Retail sales rose only 0.2% in September, while producer price data indicated stable inflation pressures. Multiple Fed officials have recently signalled support for easing policy due to continued softness in the labor market. As a result, market expectations for a 25 bps cut have surged to over 84%, up sharply from 50% a week earlier. However, gains were capped by easing geopolitical tensions, with reports of progress in peace discussions between Ukraine and Russia, reducing safe-haven demand. Physical demand across major Asian markets remained subdued. Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $21/oz, narrower than last week’s $43 but still signalling weak buying amid price volatility. On the global front, gold demand rose 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes in Q3, the highest quarterly figure on record, driven by a 17% surge in bar and coin demand and a 134% increase in ETF inflows, according to the World Gold Council. Central bank purchases rose 10% to 219.9 tonnes, while overall supply hit a record high due to increased recycling and mine output. The market saw short covering, with open interest dropping 15.91% to 6,747 while prices rose 706. Support lies at ₹1,25,365, below which levels of ₹1,24,800 may be tested. Resistance is at ₹1,26,335, and a break above could open the path toward ₹1,26,740.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹124800-₹126740.
- Gold rose as delayed economic data bolstered expectations of a December Fed rate cut.
- Recent figures suggest a slowing of consumer momentum, with retail sales rising just 0.2% in September after a stronger gain in August.
- US producer price data showed that inflation pressures remained broadly in line with expectations.
Crude oil on 26th Nov settled 0.52% higher at ₹5,193, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and mixed supply signals. Markets initially reacted to doubts over the success of the new U.S.-backed proposal to end the Russia–Ukraine conflict after EU officials indicated Russia lacked genuine intent for peace. This limited downside sentiment and helped prices hold firm. On the supply front, OPEC+ is expected to maintain current output levels, even as it previously agreed to raise December production targets by 137,000 bpd and pause increases in Q1 next year. U.S. crude inventory data presented a mixed picture. The EIA reported a 2.8 million-barrel rise in crude stocks to 426.9 million barrels, far above estimates, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased modestly. Refinery runs rose by 211,000 bpd, pushing utilization to 92.3%, and crude imports climbed by over 1 million bpd. U.S. oil output is projected to average 13.59 million bpd this year, slightly above earlier forecasts, contributing to a growing global surplus. Agencies including Deutsche Bank, IEA, and Goldman Sachs caution that supply growth will outpace demand through 2026, with a projected surplus exceeding 4 million bpd by 2026. The market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 6.16% to 16,028 while prices gained 27. Crude oil now finds support at ₹5,164, with a break below opening the door toward ₹5,134. Resistance is placed at ₹5,224, and a move above this could trigger a rally toward ₹5,254.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5134-₹5254.
- Crude oil surged as doubts were cast on the possible success of the new U.S. proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
- On the supply side, OPEC+ is likely to leave output levels unchanged at its meeting.
- Crude inventories climbed by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels in the week ended November 21, the EIA said.
