DBT Bureau
Pune, 25 Nov 2025
Gold prices eased, settling 0.27% lower at ₹123854, as investors awaited fresh cues from upcoming US economic data including September retail sales, PPI, and weekly jobless claims. Market sentiment remains divided on the Federal Reserve’s next move, though expectations for a December 25 bps rate cut have strengthened after Fed President John Williams signaled openness to further easing. Markets now price in a 69% probability of a rate cut, sharply higher than last week’s 40% following strong jobs data. Despite the recent correction, bullion remains up around 55% for the year, supported by geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand, and strong central bank buying. Comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who expressed caution over frontloading rate cuts due to sticky inflation, added to macro uncertainty. September Nonfarm Payrolls rose 119,000, beating expectations, though August was sharply revised lower. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.Physical gold demand across Asia stayed subdued amid price volatility. Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $21/oz, narrower than last week but still reflecting weak demand, while Chinese markets saw par to $5/oz discounts. Swiss gold exports fell 11% in October due to softer Chinese offtake. Gold is under long liquidation with open interest down 2.54% to 9,031. Support is at ₹122955, then ₹122055, while resistance lies at ₹124405, above which ₹124955 may be tested.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹122055-₹124955.
- Gold prices dropped as investors awaited more US economic data for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
- Attention will mainly be on September’s retail sales and PPI figures due on Tuesday, along with weekly jobless claims on Wednesday.
- Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold by 15,384 contracts to 133,927 contracts.
Silver futures closed slightly higher, settling 0.21% up at ₹154482, supported by rising expectations of a US rate cut in December after dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials. However, mixed macroeconomic signals continued to cloud market sentiment. The delayed US nonfarm payrolls report showed stronger job growth in September, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a four-year high. Fed officials expressed differing views, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee remaining uneasy about front-loading cuts, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled hesitance toward lowering rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Silver is still on track for over 1% weekly losses. According to the LBMA, silver inventories in London vaults climbed 6.8% in October to 26,255 tonnes, aided by large inflows from the US and China that eased a severe liquidity squeeze. Meanwhile, 1,568 tonnes exited Comex warehouses amid tariff-related uncertainty, although overall stocks remain higher year-on-year. Silver-backed ETP holdings have surged 18% year-to-date, reflecting investor concerns over stagflation, US fiscal risks, and geopolitical tensions. However, global silver demand for 2025 is projected to fall 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, led by declines in industrial, jewelry, and bar-coin categories. Industrial demand is expected to drop 2%, while jewelry consumption may fall 4% due to record local prices in India. The market is witnessing short covering with open interest down 4.99% to 10,338. Support is placed at ₹153030, then ₹151585, while resistance is at ₹155305, above which ₹156135 may be tested.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹151585-₹156135.
- Silver gains as expectations for a US interest rate cut next month increased after dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials.
- Fed’s Goolsbee repeats he is uneasy on rate cuts
- Fed’s Collins: Monetary policy currently in right place, hesitant about cutting rates
