DBT Bureau
Pune, 21 Nov 2025
Gold prices declined by 0.26% to settle at ₹1,22,727 per 10 grams as investors reassessed mixed U.S. labor data and moderated expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed a robust increase of 119,000 jobs in September 2025, beating market forecasts, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, signaling a still-resilient but softening labor market. Meanwhile, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown delayed the release of these figures, adding uncertainty to market sentiment. On the physical demand front, Swiss gold exports dropped by 11% in October, led by a sharp 93% plunge in shipments to China to just 2.1 tons as high prices curbed consumer appetite. Exports to the U.K. also fell 69% to 8.7 tons, while Thailand saw a sharp rise to 13.9 tons. Indian buying remained subdued with domestic dealers offering discounts up to $43 per ounce— their widest in five months—amid elevated local prices. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% year-on-year in the third quarter to a record 1,313 metric tons, driven by 17% higher investment demand and a 134% surge in gold-backed ETF inflows, offsetting weak jewellery demand. Technically, gold futures face fresh selling pressure with open interest up 1.51% at 10,392. Support is seen near ₹1,21,900, below which prices may test ₹1,21,070, while resistance is expected at ₹1,23,660 and ₹1,24,590 levels.
Trading Ideas:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹121070- ₹124590.
- Gold dropped as investors digested mixed US labor data and fading expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
- US nonfarm payrolls rose by 119K in September 2025, rebounding from a revised 4K decline in August and beating market forecasts of 50K.
- The US unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September 2025 from 4.3% in August, exceeding market expectations of 4.3%
Silver prices fell 0.62% to ₹1,54,151 per kg as the market digested the U.S. Federal Reserve’s October minutes, which highlighted a split among policymakers on the pace and timing of rate cuts, dampening the recent metals rally and strengthening the dollar. The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September 2025, beating expectations, and wage growth slightly outpaced forecasts at 3.8%. However, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, preserving safe-haven demand amid enduring macro and geopolitical uncertainties. Physical fundamentals remained supportive for silver, with strong technical momentum after last month’s break above $52 per ounce and continued steady Asian buying. In India, the wedding season spurred physical demand, while possible U.S. tariffs added to safe-haven appeal. London vaults saw silver inventories rise to 26,255 metric tons (up 6.8% month-on-month), alleviating a recent liquidity crunch as inflows from the U.S. and China eased borrowing rates. Meanwhile, Comex warehouse stocks declined by 1,568 tons since early October, though inventories remain elevated year-on-year due to tariff-driven uncertainty. Exchange-traded product holdings have climbed roughly 18% year-to-date, reflecting persistent investor anxiety over stagflation, Fed policy, and global unrest. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 1.71% to 12,394 contracts and prices down by 956. Support sits at ₹1,52,665, with further downside possible to ₹1,51,180, while resistance is likely at ₹1,56,120 and a break may target ₹1,58,090.
Trading Ideas:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹151180- ₹158090.
- Silver dropped as markets digested the Fed’s October minutes which revealed a divided committee.
- The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, rebounding from a downwardly revised decline of 4,000 in August and surpassing forecasts of 50,000.
- Many officials still expect cuts at some point but a large group signalled that a December move is not certain.
Crude oil settled slightly higher by 0.1% at ₹5,263, buoyed by a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. stockpiles and a broader risk-on rally in asset markets. The U.S. saw crude inventories fall by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14—significantly larger than the market’s expected 0.6-million-barrel decrease—while Cushing, Oklahoma, hub stocks dropped by 698,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate stocks, on the other hand, posted smaller-than-expected declines, indicating ongoing consumer demand. Geopolitically, the U.S. renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and drafted a peace framework, which has implications for supply expectations as more Russian oil could potentially hit the market. Meanwhile, sanctions on oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil , slated to take effect imminently, have already disrupted oil trade flows, especially to India, adding another layer of volatility. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects record-high oil output this year at 13.59 million bpd, with only a marginal decline expected in 2026. Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC+ forecast supply growth outpacing demand through 2026, suggesting a deepening surplus in global balances. Technically, crude oil is experiencing short covering, as open interest fell 5.78% to 15,129 contracts with prices up 5. Key support lies at ₹5,206, with a further drop possibly testing ₹5,149, while resistance is observed at ₹5,331, above which prices could target ₹5,399.
Trading Ideas:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5149-₹5399.
- Crude oil prices edged up boosted by a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles.
- However, reports indicated the U.S. was renewing its push to end the Russia-Ukraine war and has drafted a framework for it.
- Crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 424.2 million in the week ended November 14, the Energy Information Administration said.
