DBT Bureau
Pune, 17 Nov 2025
Gold settled sharply lower by -2.52% at ₹123561, pressured by a wave of hawkish commentary from U.S. Federal Reserve officials, which dampened expectations for a December rate cut. Although the U.S. government reopened after a historic 43-day shutdown, uncertainty persists as October unemployment data may not be released, leaving markets without key economic indicators. Fed officials highlighted persistent inflation risks and a resilient labour market, prompting traders to reassess their outlook. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a December quarter-point cut has fallen to 49%, down from 64% earlier. Physical gold demand across major Asian hubs remained subdued due to elevated prices. India saw the sharpest impact, with dealer discounts widening to $43 per ounce, the highest in five months, compared to $14 last week. The IBJA urged the government to close a loophole allowing duty-free imports of platinum-alloy jewellery containing 90% gold. In China, gold traded between an $8 discount and a $4 premium, while Singapore saw premiums of $1.50–$3.50, Hong Kong $0.50–$2.50, and Japan at par to $0.50 premium. The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand rose 3% YoY to 1,313 tons, the highest on record for any quarter, driven by strong investment demand. ETF inflows surged 134%, while bar and coin demand jumped 17%, offsetting a 23% fall in jewellery fabrication. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.06%. Gold now finds support at ₹121220, below which it may test ₹118885, while resistance is placed at ₹126470, with further upside potential toward ₹129385.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹118885 – ₹129385.
- Gold dropped as hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials clouded prospects for a December rate cut.
- The U.S. government reopened after a record 43-day shutdown that had disrupted key economic data flows.
- Physical gold demand across major Asian markets was subdued as elevated prices curtailed buying activity.
Crude oil settled 2.18% higher at ₹5342, supported by renewed supply concerns after the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone strike that damaged an oil depot, a vessel, and nearby infrastructure. The attack, which injured crew members and disrupted operations at one of Russia’s key export hubs, heightened fears of supply tightening in an already sensitive geopolitical environment. Gains were tempered by U.S. inventory data, as the EIA reported a strong 6.4-million-barrel rise in crude stocks, far exceeding expectations of a 2-million-barrel build, highlighting near-term demand weakness. Gasoline and distillate inventories declined modestly, indicating mixed signals for refined fuel consumption. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that U.S. oil production will average 13.59 million bpd this year, a new record, with only a slight dip expected next year, driven by stronger-than-expected August output. Global oil and liquid fuels production is forecast at 106 million bpd, while demand is seen at 104.1 million bpd, reinforcing expectations of a supply-heavy market. The IEA also raised its supply growth forecast, signalling deeper surpluses into 2026. It expects global output to rise 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and 2.5 million bpd in 2026, with supply consistently outpacing demand by wide margins. Technically, crude oil is under short covering, with open interest plunging 32.65% as prices gained 114 rupees. Support lies at ₹5284, with potential decline toward ₹5227 if breached. Resistance is placed at ₹5379, and a breakout above this could push prices toward ₹5417.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5227 – ₹5417.
- Crude oil prices climbed boosted by supply fears after the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports
- OPEC report that global oil supply would match demand in 2026, in a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit.
- EIA reported a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell less than expected.
