DBT Bureau
Pune, 4 Nov 2025
Crude oil on 3rd Nov settled higher by 0.46% at 5,447 as OPEC+ decided to pause production hikes for the first quarter of 2026, providing some support to prices. The group, comprising OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and then maintain current levels through Q1 2026 to ensure a supply-demand balance. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais reaffirmed that the outlook for oil demand remains positive, with no major market disruptions expected. Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude forecast for H1 2026 to $60 a barrel from $57.5, citing the production pause and recent sanctions on Russian oil assets. On the U.S. front, the Energy Information Administration reported a sharp fall in crude inventories by 6.858 million barrels for the week ending October 24, well above expectations of a 0.4-million draw. Gasoline and distillate stocks also fell by 5.941 million and 3.362 million barrels, respectively, reflecting firm demand. Meanwhile, U.S. crude output rose to a record 13.8 million bpd in August. OPEC maintained its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, projecting a smaller supply deficit as output gradually increases. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest dropping 4.76% to 14,160 while prices gained 25. Crude oil is finding support at 5,398, below which it may test 5,350, while resistance is seen at 5,482, and a breakout above could push prices towards 5,518.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5350-5518.
- Crude oil prices edged slightly higher as OPEC+ agreed to halt production hikes for the first quarter of 2026.
- OPEC+ agrees to small December oil output hike, and Q1 pause
- OPEC’s Al Ghais says oil demand outlook remains positive, no market surprises expected
Source:Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
