DBT Bureau
Pune, 3 Nov 2025
Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd. has released its latest report on the silver outlook, noting that silver recently surged to record highs before witnessing a sharp correction amid profit-booking and shifting global cues. The report highlights that while a stronger dollar and easing safe-haven demand added pressure, the long-term fundamentals remain positive due to persistent supply deficits and steady investment interest, indicating potential accumulation opportunities once market sentiment steadies.
Highlights
● Silver surged to a record high of $54.45 (₹170,415 on MCX) amid a short squeeze and liquidity crunch in London.
● Gains were supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand.
● Weaker US CPI data strengthened the case for lower interest rates, while the Fed’s 25-bps cut to 3.75%–4.00% added momentum.
● The US government shutdown, now in its fifth week, fueled economic uncertainty and investor caution.
● Silver later corrected over 16% to $45.70 as rate-cut optimism faded and a US–China trade truce reduced safe-haven appeal.
● Fed Chair Powell’s cautious comments and a stronger US dollar kept pressure on prices.
● China’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0, highlighting weak industrial demand for silver.
● The global silver market is projected to stay in deficit for the fifth consecutive year, though the gap may narrow 21% to 117.6M oz in 2025.
● LBMA forecasts silver near $59.10 in 12 months, while UBS expects the gold-silver ratio to move toward 76, showing relative strength in silver.
● Citi cut its short-term price target to $42 from $55, as technical indicators (RSI, MACD) show momentum weakening after the sharp rally.
Price Performance & Fundamentals: Silver corrected sharply by over 16%, retreating from its record high of $54.45 (₹170,415 on MCX) to $45.70, as rate-cut optimism faded and the US–China trade truce reduced safe-haven appeal. The Fed’s cautious stance, stronger dollar, and soft Chinese industrial demand also pressured prices. Despite the correction, silver remains supported by persistent global supply deficits and ongoing investment inflows, positioning it for renewed strength once macro sentiment stabilizes.
Volatility: Volatility surged following the steep retracement, reflecting heavy profit-booking and speculative unwinding. The broader trend remains intact, but short-term instability suggests a consolidation phase before any sustainable rebound. Traders should continue employing tight risk management as price swings may remain elevated in the near term.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI readings have fallen from overbought territory, confirming the loss of upward momentum and a near-term corrective bias. The indicator now approaches neutral-to-oversold zones, implying potential for technical recovery once support levels hold.
Vortex Indicator: The Vortex indicator highlights a bearish crossover, validating the current corrective move. However, declining negative momentum and flattening trendlines indicate that downward strength is weakening, hinting at potential bottom formation around key supports.
Ulcer Index: The Ulcer Index has spiked, emphasizing rising investor unease and drawdown pressure. Historically, such elevated readings have marked short-term capitulation zones, often preceding a price rebound as selling pressure exhausts.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Elliott Wave structure suggests silver may have completed a Wave V top and is now undergoing an A–B–C correction phase. This move appears to be a healthy retracement within the long-term bullish framework, likely offering accumulation opportunities around the mid-$40 support range.
