DBT Bureau
Pune, 25 Oct 2025
Crude oil prices surged by 5.55% to settle at 5,437 as renewed geopolitical tensions and fresh sanctions on Russia lifted prices. The U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine conflict, following similar actions by the U.K. and EU’s latest sanctions package, which included a ban on Russian LNG imports. The restrictions are expected to disrupt trade flows, forcing major Asian refiners such as China and India to seek alternative crude suppliers. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 due to OPEC+ production hikes but trimmed demand expectations, citing weaker economic activity. The agency expects oil demand to rise by only 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) annually through 2026. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude inventories rising by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell, indicating stronger consumption trends. Refinery utilization dropped sharply by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, signaling lower processing activity. OPEC’s monthly report maintained a solid outlook for global demand and noted that OPEC+ output rose by 630,000 bpd to 43.05 million bpd in September, leaving the market in a marginal 50,000 bpd deficit. Technically, crude oil is under short covering as open interest dropped by 27.65% to 14,766 while prices gained 286. Support is seen at 5,241 and 5,045, while resistance is at 5,554 and 5,671.
Trading Ideas:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5045-5671.
- Crude oil rose after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war.
- EU formally adopts 19th package of sanctions against Russia
- Crude inventories fell by 961,000 barrels to 422.8 million barrels in the week ended October 17, the EIA said.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
