DBT Bureau
Pune, 16 Oct 2025
Crude oil on 15 Oct settled lower by 1.68% at 5,145 as investors reacted to concerns over a potential supply surplus and renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that the global oil market could face a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026, significantly higher than earlier estimates, amid rising output from OPEC+ and sluggish demand growth. The ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute, with both nations imposing new port fees on cargoes, raised fears of disrupted freight flows and weaker economic activity, further dampening oil demand prospects. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected record-high domestic oil production at 13.53 million barrels per day this year, up from 13.23 million bpd in 2024, signaling ample supply ahead. EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels last week to 416.5 million barrels, exceeding expectations, while gasoline and distillate stocks also increased—adding pressure on prices. Refinery utilization slipped to 91.4%, and crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined slightly by 271,000 barrels. Meanwhile, OPEC+ raised output by 630,000 barrels per day in September to 43.05 million bpd, maintaining its optimistic demand outlook but acknowledging a narrowing supply deficit. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 10.32% to 10,006 contracts. Crude oil finds support at 5,100 and 5,056, while resistance is seen at 5,216, with a breakout above potentially testing 5,288.
Market Analysis
- Crude oil trading range for the day is 5056-5288.
- Crude oil dropped as investors weighed the International Energy Agency’s prediction of a supply surplus in 2026.
- Trade tensions between the U.S. and China can curtail demand.
- IEA said that the global oil market could face a surplus next year of up to 4 million barrels per day.
News Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
