DBT Bureau
Pune, 23 Feb 2026
The Gold–Silver Ratio (GSR) has historically traded within a broad band of 45–85 over the last five decades. Extremes beyond this range have often marked major cyclical turning points in bullion.
During the COVID panic phase, the ratio spiked to 126.55, signaling extreme fear and heavy preference for gold over silver. From that peak, the ratio corrected sharply, confirming a powerful silver outperformance cycle. By January 2026, the ratio collapsed toward the 44–45 zone, validating the structural support region that historically does not sustain on the downside.
The rebound from 45 toward 72.50 (6 February high) marked a corrective phase in silver, accompanied by a deeper retracement in silver versus gold.
Technical Indicators: Momentum & Exhaustion Signals
Currently, the ratio trades near 59.40–60 zone.
● RSI at 29.98 – Entering oversold territory, indicating downside momentum in the ratio may be nearing exhaustion.
● MACD deeply negative (-5.33) – Bearish momentum persists but histogram compression suggests selling intensity is stabilizing.
● Volume spike during recent drop – Suggests capitulation-type move.
● Price nearing mid-channel support and previous congestion zone near 50–53 band.
Technically, the broader pattern shows a descending structure from the 105–107 highs, with lower highs forming. If the ratio sustains below 60, a move toward 53–50 becomes probable.
Fundamental Backdrop: Why Silver May Outperform
Silver’s fundamental setup remains constructive:
● Ongoing industrial demand (solar, EV, electronics)
● Structural supply tightness
● ETF participation recovering
● Lower relative valuation versus gold after correction
Gold remains supported by macro uncertainty and currency risk, but silver typically outperforms in mid-cycle or recovery phases when liquidity stabilizes.
The ratio decline from 107 to 44 earlier demonstrated how aggressively silver can outperform once momentum confirms.
Strategic View
The Gold–Silver Ratio acts as a leading indicator. Current technical exhaustion in the ratio suggests:
Silver likely to outperform gold in the coming 4–6 weeks, heading towards $94.50 as long as above $75.
Key trigger level: Sustained silver price above $75 internationally can see sharp positive move towards $94.50. In conclusion, the techno funda alignment—oversold ratio, structural support zones, and improving silver technical & fundamentals—indicates that the next directional move may favor silver dominance once again.
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