DBT Bureau
Pune, 27 Jan 2026
The year 2025 marked the point where a conventional bull run in precious metals evolved into a clear structural shift. We initially expected a corrective phase in the second half of 2025, following a typical 2.5–3-year commodity cycle. However, escalating geopolitical “mineral wars”—from Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran to US-Venezuela and beyond—disrupted traditional market timing. Gold decisively surpassed our Fibonacci targets of $3,500–3,600 and rallied almost linearly to the current $5,100 level, without a single quarterly decline since January 2025. Silver mirrored this move, achieving our $75–80 objective far earlier than anticipated due to structural changes in global demand and supply, particularly from the US and China.
Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook remains secularly bullish but technically risky. Importantly, 2026 is likely to be a cyclical bullish phase within a larger structural uptrend, rather than a fresh long-term accumulation opportunity. At current levels, further upside projections increasingly become a number game, as risk-reward for fresh investing is unattractive. From here, bullion should be approached as a trading opportunity, not an investment theme. Long-term investing requires valuation comfort and favourable entry zones, both of which have been exhausted after the exceptional returns of the past two years.
Technically, the next major Fibonacci extension for gold lies near $5,900, with interim resistance around $5,360. With momentum indicators such as RSI near 92, mean reversion is inevitable. Any cooling in geopolitical or liquidity-driven factors could trigger a correction toward $4,150 initially, and potentially a deeper retracement toward the $3,600 baseline.
Silver continues to display extreme volatility, driven by supply squeezes, ETF inflows, and its rising role as a financial asset among family offices and mutual funds, reinforced by a collapsing gold-silver ratio from 90 to 48. After doubling from $50 to $110, upside targets of $116 and $136 remain viable. However, a 50% retracement suggests $72 as a fair-value zone, with extreme scenarios testing the $52 breakout level. Finally in 2026, commodities are no longer just assets—they are strategic instruments. The trend remains upward, but amid squeeze-driven rallies, discipline, risk management, and selling into strength matter more than chasing momentum.
(Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before taking positions in stocks)
