DBT Bureau
Pune, 29 Oct 2026
Gold continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience despite persistent pressure from elevated crude oil prices, stronger bond yields, inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy stance. Throughout October, gold has largely consolidated between $3,975 and $4,225 per ounce, suggesting that the market is gradually absorbing negative developments rather than witnessing aggressive liquidation.
Even the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75–4.00%, alongside expectations of further tightening, failed to trigger sustained selling. This indicates that much of the negative news may already be priced in.
Meanwhile, central-bank accumulation, physical demand from China and India, ETF investment inflows, rising mining costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to provide fundamental support. Global gold ETFs attracted approximately $10 billion in September, while central banks purchased 39 tonnes in August, highlighting sustained institutional interest.
Historically, crude oil sustaining above $100 has initially pressured gold through higher inflation and interest-rate expectations, as witnessed in 2008 and 2022. With Brent trading above $110, energy-driven inflation remains a major obstacle to gold’s recovery. However, any meaningful correction in crude could ease inflationary pressure and revive expectations of monetary easing.
Technically, $4,220 represents the decisive breakout level. A sustained move above this resistance could signal the end of consolidation and initiate a fresh bullish rally towards $4,640, representing approximately 10% upside. On the downside, $3,975 remains immediate support, followed by the crucial $3,900 level. In an extreme bearish scenario, $3,820 could emerge as the next major support zone.
According to Kedia Advisory, the outlook remains one of consolidation with a bullish bias. Gold appears to have absorbed much of the negative news and could be preparing for its next major upward move. Easing crude oil prices, declining bond yields or a shift in Federal Reserve expectations could provide the much-awaited positive trigger.
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