DBT Bureau
Pune, 6 July 2026
A firmer U.S. dollar, softer U.S. jobs data and rising OPEC+ supply kept commodity markets under pressure, with precious metals and crude oil trading lower. While bullion found some support from expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, oil prices slipped on increased production targets and improving export flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while base metals remained supported by tight supply and stronger manufacturing activity in China.
- Precious metals declined as the U.S. dollar strengthened against its key currency peers. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve may soften its stance on future interest rate hikes helped limit losses in bullion prices.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% in June meeting, with investors now awaiting the FOMC meeting minutes due this week for further guidance on the policy outlook and whether the committee supports a hawkish or more dovish stance.
- The U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in June, as Non-Farm Payrolls rose by only 57,000 and prior months’ job gains were revised lower. Despite the slowdown in hiring, the unemployment rate declined to 4.2%, leading markets to reduce bets on a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
- OPEC+ agreed to further raise oil production targets from August, increasing global supply as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens. During an online meeting, the producer group approved an additional 188,000 barrels per day increase in output quotas for August, following similar production hikes implemented in June and July.
- Crude oil prices declined on the prospects of increased supply from OPEC+ amid improving export flows from key producers through straight of Hormuz.
- The global refined copper market showed a 145,000 metric tonnes deficit in April, compared with a 23,000 metric tonnes surplus in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said.
- World refined copper output in April was 2.42 million metric tonnes, while consumption was 2.57 million metric tonnes.
- Total aluminums inventories in LME fell below 300,000 tonnes for the first time since 2022.
- China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in June, signaling an expansion in manufacturing activity, supported by continued growth and improving performance in the high-tech manufacturing sector.
- The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May, coming in below market expectations. The weaker reading signaled a moderation in manufacturing activity and pointed to a slowdown in the sector’s growth momentum.
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Source: Geojit Investments Limited
