DBT Bureau
Pune, 14 April 2026
LME aluminium prices hovered near a four-year high, maintaining their upward trajectory since the start of the year, as the market remained firmly supported by supply disruptions in the Middle East, a key hub for global aluminium production, alongside resilient demand from China and tightening global supply, according to Geojit Investments latest aluminium market report.
- LME aluminium futures hovered in the vicinity of the four-year high reached in early March, trading around USD 3,500 per metric tonne and maintaining an upward trend so far in 2026.
- In MCX, aluminium futures tested an all time high of Rs.366 per kilo supported by strong global cues.
- Emirates Global Aluminium said fully restoring primary aluminium production at its Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE that was hit by an Iranian attack late last month could take up to a year.
- Several global aluminium buyers continue to shun Russian -origin metal due to sanctions-related risks, opting instead for Indian-origin material.
- Indian aluminium inventories experienced a steeper drawdown, falling by 132,625 MT to 19,875 MT in March due to heightened demand for India-made aluminium within the LME system.
- Russia’s major aluminium producer, Rusal, is actively diversifying its export destinations by redirecting shipments toward Japan and South Korea, reducing its reliance on the Chinese market.
- Global equities largely traded in positive territory last week.
- The U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of six major currencies and hovered below 99 marks.
- Euro, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan edged up against USD last week.
- Indian rupee tested an all time low against the USD in March, and rebounded to near 93.07 marks.
LME Aluminium surged to near record peak
Aluminium prices climbed to record highs on benchmark exchanges following significant supply disruptions and logistical constraints stemming from geopolitical tensions. The blockade affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz has heightened concerns over an implied global supply shortage, contributing to sharply higher regional premiums across major consuming markets. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) announced that the full restoration of primary aluminium production at its Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE could take up to one year. The facility entered an emergency shutdown and was fully evacuated after Iranian attacks on March 28 targeted the Khalifa Economic Zone in Abu Dhabi. In response to the prolonged outage, EGA has declared force majeure on certain aluminium supply contracts, further tightening availability in the global market.
Amid these developments, U.S. President Donald Trump revised national security tariffs on steel, aluminium, and copper imports. The adjustments reduced duty rates on derivative products, simplified compliance requirements, and addressed concerns around under-reporting of import values. The policy changes are expected to moderate cost pressures for downstream users while maintaining protections on primary metal imports.
Disruptions caused by the Iran-related conflict materially altered the composition of aluminium stocks held in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. The share of Russian-origin aluminium among available inventories rose to 92% in March, up from 60% in February. By contrast, Indian-origin aluminium’s share fell sharply to 7% from 36% over the same period. In volume terms, Russian aluminium stocks declined modestly by 4,225 MT to 247,475 MT. Indian aluminium inventories experienced a much steeper drawdown, falling by 132,625 MT to 19,875 MT in March. The contraction reflects temporary cancellations of Indian deliveries as well as heightened demand for India-made aluminium within the LME system, driven by disrupted regional supply from Gulf producers. Despite the availability of some Russian aluminium, specifically metal produced before April 13, 2024, many traders continue to avoid Russian-origin material due to sanctions-related risks. To comply with Western sanctions, the LME has banned aluminium produced in Russia after that date from entering its warehousing system.
Warehouse stock level
Aluminium inventories in LME registered warehouses declined by 10750 MT and totalled 399150 MT in the last week. At the same time, the inventory level in SHFE registered warehouses increased by 4224 MT and totalled 474332 MT.
Shanghai Futures Exchange:
Prices are expected to remain mild positive with intermittent pullbacks. A break below CNY23800/MT could trigger a downward move, while a solid trades above CNY25500/MT may accelerate upward momentum.
MCX:
A bullish divergence on the MACD indicates the potential for further upside, although the RSI hovering at overbought territory points to the possibility for liquidation move. Sustained trading above Rs.350/kg would reinforce the prevailing uptrend, while a move back below this level could introduce mild downside pressure.
