DBT Bureau
Pune, 16 March 2026
According to a latest market update by Kedia Advisory, commodity markets witnessed heightened volatility as investors reacted to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, shifting U.S. economic indicators and movements in the U.S. dollar. Precious metals such as gold and silver faced selling pressure, while crude oil extended gains amid supply disruption concerns and escalating risks around key global energy routes.
Based on the latest analysis below are the commodity market outlook for gold, silver and crude oil.
GOLD:
Gold prices slipped, settling 1.13% lower at ₹158,466, as investors weighed persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against signs of slowing economic growth in the United States. While elevated crude oil prices continue to stoke inflation concerns, revised data showed U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2025 slowing sharply to an annualized 0.7%, raising fresh questions about the strength of the economy. As a result, markets now see reduced chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with policymakers balancing inflation risks from geopolitical tensions against signs of economic cooling. Despite the decline in prices, global demand trends remain supportive. China’s central bank extended its gold buying streak to a 16th consecutive month, increasing its holdings to 74.22 million troy ounces by the end of February. The value of China’s gold reserves rose to $387.59 billion, reflecting both steady purchases and higher global prices. Import data also showed stronger physical demand, with China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rising 68.7% in January to 20.58 tonnes. In contrast, demand in India remained weak due to high prices and import duties, pushing local market discounts to as much as $83 per ounce, the widest since 2016. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.26% to 7,844 lots while prices declined by ₹1,805. Immediate support is seen near ₹157,115, and a break below this level could push prices toward ₹155,760. On the upside, resistance is likely around ₹160,250, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of ₹162,030.
SILVER:
Silver prices declined sharply, settling 3.18% lower at ₹259,435, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed heavily on the precious metals complex. The dollar index remained above the 100 mark, its highest level since late November 2025, and is on track for a second straight weekly gain. Investors have continued to favor the greenback as a safe-haven asset amid escalating tensions with Iran and the absence of any clear path toward de-escalation. The U.S. is also viewed as relatively better positioned than many other economies due to its greater energy independence. Markets also reacted to a fresh set of U.S. economic data. The PCE inflation report showed the annual inflation rate easing to 2.8%, while fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised sharply lower to 0.7%, down from the earlier estimate of 1.4%. Despite the softer growth outlook, traders still expect the Federal Reserve to deliver only one interest rate cut this year, likely around September. The upcoming policy meeting next week will be closely watched for guidance on the central bank’s outlook. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,065 tonnes at the end of February, down 2.4% from the previous month. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 0.88% to 5,889 lots while prices dropped by ₹8,527. Immediate support is seen at ₹252,875, and a break below this level could push prices toward ₹246,320. On the upside, resistance is likely near ₹267,585, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of ₹275,740.
CRUDE OIL:
Crude oil prices extended their gains, settling 2.82% higher at ₹9,052, as the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy flows. The waterway handles nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, and continued tensions in the Middle East have kept markets on edge. Although an Indian tanker recently managed to exit the strait and the United States introduced measures aimed at easing supply concerns, the broader market remains focused on the risk of prolonged disruptions. In an effort to stabilize global energy markets, the U.S. Treasury issued a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has sharply reduced production to around 8 mbpd, down from more than 10 million bpd in February, after cutting output from two major offshore fields amid the conflict with Iran. According to the IEA, Gulf producers including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have collectively reduced supply by at least 10 million barrels per day. Reflecting the heightened uncertainty, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average above $100 per barrel in March before easing to around $85 in April. From a technical standpoint, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest falling 17.62% to 14,311 lots while prices gained ₹248. Immediate support is seen near ₹8,694, and a break below this level could push prices toward ₹8,336. On the upside, resistance is likely around ₹9,255, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of ₹9,458.
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