Debasis Mohapatra
Bengaluru, 1 March 2026
Market next week (March 2- March 6) may be a tricky one to navigate as Middle East region saw major geopolitical events unfolding with the US & Israel attacking Iran. Iran, in return, hit most Gulf countries with missiles and drones, which have US military bases. Escalating tensions in the major oil producing zone pushed up oil prices.
Some important factors to watch out for:
- US, Israel vs Iran war:
At the time of writing this report, war between US-Israel and Iran continued in the Middle East region. The attack and counterattack were fierce with fears of spreading it to the whole region. As the whole region is a major oil producing zone of the world, it has direct bearing on the economies of all nations. Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz is an important pathway for ships through which 20% of global oil trade happens. So, any blockage of this channel will lead to serious disruption in supply of oil and other commodities apart from raising freight rates.
2) Oil price spike:
Oil prices may touch $80 per barrel as per some analysts. If the war lingers, then global oil prices will definitely surge. It will increase India’s import bill and may put pressure of trade and fiscal deficit calculations. Oil price hike will also put margin pressure on user industries like aviation, oil & gas, paints and others.
3) US Job data and PMI Numbers:
4) Performance of Nifty IT Index:
Nifty IT Index showed some signs of consolidation last week after severe beating since last two months. The performance of Nifty IT Index has been a drag on the overall benchmark index. If investors’ buying come back, then it may support the broad gauge to an extent.
Overall, news flow from US-Iran war is likely to heavily impact stock movements next week.
