DBT Bureau
Pune, 19 Feb 2026
Gold surged 2.87% to settle at 155,761, driven largely by dip buying as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Comments from Michael Barr, who signaled rates should stay on hold until inflation moves convincingly toward 2%, contrasted with remarks from Austan Goolsbee suggesting rate cuts remain possible later this year if disinflation continues. Markets are now focused on upcoming FOMC minutes, GDP, and PCE data for clearer direction. Safe-haven demand was tempered somewhat by easing geopolitical tensions, including reported progress in US–Iran talks and ongoing Russia–Ukraine negotiations. In physical markets, gold traded at discounts in India for the first time in nearly a month, with dealers offering up to $12 per ounce below official prices as volatility curbed retail buying. In contrast, demand in China remained firm ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. According to the China Gold Association, China’s total gold output rose 3.35% in 2025, while consumption fell 3.57%, reflecting weaker jewelry demand but strong investment buying. ETF holdings and central bank reserves also increased notably. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest, with open interest up 2.57%.
Silver rallied sharply by 6.77% to close at 244,268, as investors positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. Policy signals remained mixed. Michael Barr reiterated that rates should stay unchanged until inflation clearly moves toward the 2% target, while Austan Goolsbee indicated that rate cuts could still be on the table later this year if price pressures continue to ease. Markets are also awaiting the U.S. PCE inflation data, with rate cut expectations currently centered around June. Some safe-haven demand was tempered by easing US–Iran tensions and holiday-thinned trading across Asia due to the Lunar New Year. U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, though core orders excluding transportation rose 0.9%, offering a mixed economic signal. On the physical side, supply tightness remains a key theme. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to multi-year lows, down more than 88% from their 2021 peak. Meanwhile, London vault holdings stood at 27,729 tonnes at the end of January, slightly lower month-on-month. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.15%.
Crude oil surged 4.43% to settle at 5,913, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions after Ukraine–Russia peace talks in Geneva collapsed within hours. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described the discussions as difficult, while Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky indicated further rounds may follow. Additional pressure came from planned Iranian and Russian naval drills in the Sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean, heightening supply risk concerns. At the same time, markets weighed reports that OPEC+ may resume output increases from April. The International Energy Agency revised its 2026 global demand growth forecast slightly higher to 930,000 bpd, though it still sees a surplus ahead. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported an 8.5 million-barrel jump in crude inventories, well above expectations, while gasoline stocks rose and distillates fell. Production is projected to ease slightly after hitting a record in 2025. Meanwhile, China’s imports of discounted Russian crude are set to hit a fresh high in February, reflecting shifting trade flows. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest, with open interest up 7.04%.
Overall, commodity markets reflected a mix of monetary policy uncertainty and shifting geopolitical dynamics, with precious metals benefiting from rate-cut expectations and safe-haven positioning while crude oil gained on heightened supply risks despite inventory concerns. Investors now turn to upcoming U.S. inflation data, central-bank signals and global demand trends for clearer direction, as volatility across gold, silver and energy is likely to persist in the near term.
