DBT Bureau
Pune, 31 Dec 2025
Kedia Advisory released its latest report, highlighting key trends and near-term outlook across major commodity markets, driven by global macro developments, geopolitical risks and evolving supply–demand dynamics.
Gold prices rebounded sharply, settling up by 1.28% at ₹1,36,666, as investor focus shifted back to persistent geopolitical and policy-related risks that have driven bullion to its strongest annual performance in over four decades. Safe-haven demand was supported by renewed geopolitical tensions after Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to attack President Vladimir Putin’s residence, dampening hopes of a near-term peace agreement. Adding to uncertainty, US President Donald Trump’s remarks that the next Fed Chairman should keep rates low and never “disagree” with him have revived concerns over Federal Reserve independence. On the macro front, US economic data remained supportive but did little to cap gold’s appeal. Pending home sales rose 3.3% month-on-month in November, beating expectations, while weekly initial jobless claims fell to 214,000, underscoring labor market resilience. Still, financial markets are pricing a 16.1% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s January meeting, keeping rate expectations accommodative for bullion. Physical demand signals were mixed. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong surged 101.5% month-on-month in November to 16.16 tonnes. However, discounts widened sharply in India to as much as $61 per ounce amid elevated prices, while Chinese discounts narrowed significantly. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 0.84% at 16,153 alongside a 1,724 price gain. Support is seen at ₹1,35,580, below which prices may test ₹1,34,490. Resistance stands at ₹1,37,470, and a move above could push prices toward ₹1,38,270.
Market analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹134490- ₹138270.
- Gold rose as the focus returned to persistent global risks.
- President Donald Trump said that he expects the next Fed Chairman to keep interest rates low and never “disagree” with him.
- The US Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% MoM in November after an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in October.
Silver prices surged sharply, settling up by 11.84% at ₹2,51,012, as heightened geopolitical uncertainty and strong underlying fundamentals reignited aggressive buying interest. Markets remained focused on persistent tensions in the Russia–Ukraine conflict following reports of a suspected Ukrainian drone incident near President Putin’s residence, while peace negotiations continue with key issues unresolved. Additional geopolitical risk premium emerged after the United States signaled potential further strikes on Iran if its nuclear and missile programs advance, alongside an operation against a drug-related facility in Venezuela, keeping safe-haven and strategic metal demand elevated. Despite near-term volatility, silver remains on track for an exceptional annual gain of around 180%, marking one of its strongest yearly performances since 1979. Prices continue to be underpinned by robust industrial demand, lingering global supply constraints, sustained ETF inflows, central bank buying, and the backdrop of three US rate cuts, with markets increasingly pricing further monetary easing in 2026. However, speculative excess has prompted regulatory action, with CME Group raising margin requirements for March 2026 silver contracts to around $25,000, aimed at curbing volatility after repeated record highs. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.62% to 12,712 alongside a 26,583 price jump. Support is seen at ₹2,37,620, with further support at ₹2,24,230. Resistance stands at ₹2,57,880, and a sustained move higher could test ₹2,64,750.
Market analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹224230- ₹264750.
- Silver rose with uncertainty persisting as tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict lingered.
- Silver has surged by 180% this year, driven by its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, supply deficits and growing industrial and investor appetite.
- US signaled possible further strikes on Iran if nuclear and missile programs advance, and announced an operation against a drug-related facility in Venezuela.
Crude oil prices edged marginally lower, settling down by 0.1% at ₹5,235, as pressure from a modest build in US inventories offset geopolitical risk premiums. The downside, however, remained limited amid fading prospects of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and persistent geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and South America. Additional supply-side focus came from the North Sea, where output of the five crude grades underpinning the dated Brent benchmark is set to rise to around 575,000 bpd in February from 565,000 bpd in January. US Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories rose by 405,000 barrels to 424.8 million barrels for the week ended December 19, defying expectations of a sizeable draw. Stocks at Cushing increased by 707,000 barrels, while refinery runs fell and utilization slipped to 94.6%. Gasoline inventories jumped 2.86 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by 202,000 barrels. On the outlook front, OPEC+ is expected to reaffirm its pause in production increases at its January 4 meeting, reflecting concerns over a global oversupply backdrop. The IEA marginally narrowed its projected 2026 surplus to 3.84 million bpd, citing stronger demand growth and slightly weaker supply expansion, partly due to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.21% to 17,807 alongside a 5 price decline. Support is seen at ₹5,215, below which prices could test ₹5,195. Resistance stands at ₹5,266, and a move above may push prices toward ₹5,297.
Market analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5195- ₹5297.
- Crude oil edged lower as U.S. data showed a modest build in crude oil inventories.
- Venezuela began shutting oil wells due to a partial US blockade that has constrained exports and caused domestic storage tanks to fill.
- Supply of the five North Sea crude oil grades underpinning the dated Brent benchmark will average about 575,000 bpd in February
Natural gas prices edged slightly higher, settling up by 0.14% at ₹357.9, supported by supply disruptions and colder weather expectations. The market drew support after Norway’s giant Troll field temporarily reduced gas supplies due to external power supply issues, with capacity restrictions expected to last for a day, though the precise impact remains uncertain. At the same time, forecasts of colder weather across much of the US lifted heating degree days through the first half of January, prompting utilities to add near-term futures positions to secure gas for heating demand. Fundamental data also remained supportive. The US Energy Information Administration reported a withdrawal of 166 billion cubic feet from storage for the week ended December 19, broadly in line with expectations but larger than typical seasonal draws. Total gas in storage fell to 3,413 bcf, placing inventories 3.6% below year-ago levels and about 0.7% under the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both US natural gas output and consumption to reach record highs in 2025. Dry gas production is projected to rise to 107.7 bcfd in 2025 and 109.1 bcfd in 2026, while domestic demand is seen increasing to 91.8 bcfd in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026, underscoring a structurally strong demand outlook. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 4.56% to 20,477 as prices gained marginally. Support is seen at ₹348.8, below which prices may test ₹339.6. Resistance is placed at ₹371.9, and a sustained move above could open the way toward ₹385.8.
Market analysis:
- Naturalgas trading range for the day is ₹339.6- ₹385.8.
- Natural gas gains as the giant Troll field in Norway reduced natural gas supplies due to issues with external power supply.
- Prices rose as forecasts of a colder winter supported the outlook for gas-intensive heating.
- Data from the EIA showed that natural gas stocks fell by 166 billion cubic feet.
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