DBT Bureau
Pune, 26 Dec 2025
Gold prices edged higher, settling up by 0.15% at ₹1,38,097, supported by expectations of further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve and elevated geopolitical risks. US economic growth remained resilient in the third quarter, with GDP expanding at a faster pace, while labour market indicators continued to show gradual moderation. Despite a divided policy outlook among Fed officials, markets are still pricing in two rate cuts in 2026 as inflation cools and employment conditions soften. Geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela, particularly US actions to blockade oil tankers, have reinforced safe-haven demand across commodity markets. Gold has now gained around 70% this year, positioning it for its strongest annual performance since 1979, underpinned by sustained central bank purchases and consistent ETF inflows. Physical market demand remained subdued at elevated price levels. In India, discounts widened to over a one-month high, with dealers offering up to $37 per ounce, while in China discounts touched $64 per ounce, the steepest in more than five years. In contrast, premiums were modest across Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan. On the investment front, the People’s Bank of China extended its buying streak to a thirteenth month, while global gold ETFs recorded a sixth consecutive month of inflows, lifting total holdings to a record 3,932 tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.62% to 14,550 as prices rose 212. Support is seen at ₹1,37,365, below which ₹1,36,635 may be tested, while resistance is placed at ₹1,38,750, with a further upside target near ₹1,39,405.
Market analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹136635- ₹139405.
- Gold hits fresh record as rate-cut expectations fuel buying
- US economic growth stays solid despite moderating labor market
- Venezuela tensions lift safe-haven demand across commodity markets
Silver prices extended their rally, settling higher by 1.88% at ₹2,23,790, supported by rising expectations of US interest rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand. Markets are increasingly factoring in two rate reductions next year as mixed US economic signals strengthen the case for policy easing. While third-quarter GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualised pace, softer consumer confidence in December and flat factory output in November have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may turn more accommodative in the coming months. Geopolitical tensions further underpinned prices after the US imposed a blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, lifting risk premiums across commodities. Year-to-date, silver has surged nearly 149%, driven by a persistent structural supply deficit, strong industrial consumption and its inclusion on the US Geological Survey’s list of critical minerals. Supply-side concerns intensified as Chinese silver inventories dropped to their lowest level in a decade, following record exports of over 660 tonnes in October to ease a squeeze in London. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked warehouses fell to the lowest since 2015, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes also declined sharply. Despite a 3.5% monthly increase in London vault holdings to 27,187 tonnes, liquidity outside China remains tight. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.1% to 12,566 alongside a 4,137 price gain. Support is seen at ₹2,20,050, below which ₹2,16,310 may be tested, while resistance stands at ₹2,25,980, with further upside towards ₹2,28,170.
Market analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹216310-₹228170.
- Silver climbed reach a fresh high, driven by expectations of US rate cuts and safe-haven demand.
- Structural supply deficit continues to tighten silver market
- Strong industrial demand supports long-term silver consumption
