DBT Bureau
Pune, 22 Dec 2025
Kedia Advisory released its latest commodities report, highlighting mixed trends across gold, silver and crude oil amid shifting macroeconomic cues, supply dynamics and geopolitical developments.
Gold prices settled lower by 0.24% at ₹134,196, pressured by profit-taking and short-term long liquidation, despite a broadly supportive macro backdrop. The decline came even as U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations of monetary easing. November CPI cooled unexpectedly, with headline inflation easing to 2.7% and core CPI to 2.6%, strengthening the case for a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance. Geopolitical risks also remain elevated after reports that Venezuela has ordered naval escorts for oil shipments following U.S. actions targeting its oil sector, raising confrontation concerns. Political signals added to focus as President Donald Trump indicated his next Fed Chair would strongly favor lower interest rates. Markets currently price in around a 25% probability of a January rate cut, with near certainty by April. Physical market dynamics were mixed. In India, gold discounts widened to over a one-month high, up to $37 per ounce, as record prices dampened wedding-season demand. In China, discounts deepened to as much as $64 per ounce, the highest in over five years. From a technical perspective, gold is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.03% to 15,036 while prices fell 325. Immediate support is seen at ₹133,710, with further downside possible toward ₹133,230. On the upside, resistance is placed at ₹134,515, and a breakout above this level could open the way toward ₹134,840.
Market analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹133230- ₹134840.
- Gold eased pressured by profit-taking and short-term long liquidation despite expectations of further Fed rate cuts.
- Swiss gold exports drop in November as shipments to India plunge
- Gold discounts in India widened to a more than one-month high as record bullion prices dampened retail demand.
Silver prices surged sharply, settling up 2.39% at ₹208,439, driven by tightening inventories, strong industrial demand and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list. Robust ETF inflows and sustained retail buying added further momentum, reinforcing expectations of a structural supply deficit in the coming years. Industrial consumption from solar panels, electric vehicles and data-center infrastructure continues to expand, while global mine production and recycling have remained largely stagnant for over a decade. As a result, the silver market is heading toward a fifth consecutive annual deficit, forecast at around 125 million ounces in 2025, taking cumulative shortages since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Supply-side stress was evident in rising lease rates and borrowing costs for physical silver in London, reflecting genuine delivery tightness. China’s announcement of strict silver export controls from 2026 has triggered front-loaded buying, while domestic stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are at the weakest since 2015, following record Chinese exports of over 660 tonnes in October. Although LBMA data showed a 3.5% monthly rise in London silver vault holdings, liquidity remains tight and borrowing costs elevated. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.41% to 12,112 as prices rose 4,874. Immediate support is placed at ₹204,525, with a further downside risk toward ₹200,615. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹210,475, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward ₹212,515.
Market analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹200615- ₹212515.
- Silver prices gained on tightening inventories, strong industrial demand and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list.
- Investor demand for silver has surged this year as falling interest rates, rising fiscal concerns and broader economic uncertainty.
- Additional support has come from robust industrial demand, particularly from the rapidly expanding solar, electric vehicle and data center sectors.
Crude oil prices edged marginally lower, settling down 0.18% at ₹5,105, as markets weighed geopolitical supply risks against rising concerns of a global supply overhang. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict kept a risk premium intact, although optimism around a potential U.S.-led Ukraine peace initiative eased some immediate supply fears. Venezuela, which accounts for about 1% of global output, authorised two unsanctioned cargoes to China, highlighting continued flow despite sanctions. On the supply front, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2025 crude production forecast to a record 13.61 million bpd, reinforcing expectations of excess supply. This aligns with the International Energy Agency’s view that the global oil market will remain in surplus, although its latest report trimmed the projected 2026 surplus to 3.84 million bpd on stronger demand growth and slightly lower supply expectations due to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. Inventory data was mixed, with U.S. crude stocks falling by 1.27 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose sharply, signalling weak near-term demand. OPEC+ output increased modestly in November, with the group maintaining its outlook for steady demand growth next year. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.48% to 22,183 as prices slipped 9. Crude oil finds support at ₹5,049, with a break below opening downside toward ₹4,994. Resistance is placed at ₹5,136, and a move above this could push prices toward ₹5,168.
Market analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹4994- ₹5168.
- Crude oil prices dropped amid a potential supply glut and prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
- Venezuela oil export operations continue despite US sanctions
- U.S. oil production is expected to hit a larger record this year than previously expected – EIA
