DBT Bureau
Pune, 19 Dec 2025
Gold prices edged lower, settling down by 0.28 percent at ₹134,521, as traders booked profits after the recent rally, despite a broadly supportive macro and geopolitical backdrop. The yellow metal continues to draw underlying support from expectations of further U.S. monetary easing and persistent global uncertainties. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that the U.S. central bank still has room to cut interest rates, estimating policy rates to be around 50–100 basis points above neutral. While he emphasized there is no urgency for aggressive action, he acknowledged that the U.S. labour market is gradually softening, allowing the Fed to ease policy at a measured pace if required. On the outlook front, Morgan Stanley maintained its bullish medium-term projection, forecasting gold prices at USD 4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. Physical demand, however, remained mixed. In India, discounts widened to as much as USD 34 per ounce amid subdued wedding-season buying at record price levels, while Chinese demand stayed muted. Elsewhere in Asia, premiums and discounts reflected cautious buying amid volatility. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 0.92 percent alongside a ₹373 price drop. Support is seen at ₹133,640, with further downside toward ₹132,755, while resistance stands at ₹135,500, and a break above could open the door toward ₹136,475.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹132755- ₹136475.
- Gold dipped on profit booking as expectations of further US rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks.
- Fed’s Waller said the U.S. central bank still has room to cut interest rates amid rising job market weakness.
- Morgan Stanley projected gold prices would see smaller gains in 2026 as central banks and exchange-traded funds reduce purchases.
Silver prices declined 1.87% to settle at ₹203,565, as the market witnessed profit booking after a strong recent rally driven by tightening inventories and robust demand fundamentals. The metal had earlier gained support from strong ETF inflows, sustained retail buying, and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, reinforcing expectations of a persistent supply deficit. Industrial demand remains a key pillar, led by solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and data-center infrastructure, while mine production and recycling have stayed broadly flat for over a decade. As a result, the global silver market is expected to record a fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025, estimated at around 125 million ounces, taking the cumulative shortfall since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Supply-side concerns have intensified after Chinese stockpiles fell to the lowest level in a decade, with large volumes shipped to London to ease a squeeze. China’s announcement of strict silver export controls effective 2026 has further fueled pre-emptive buying. Meanwhile, elevated lease rates in London indicate genuine physical tightness. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 9% to 12,888 contracts even as prices fell by ₹3,870, signaling short build-up. The metal has immediate support at 201,140, below which prices could test ₹198,715. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹206,525, and a decisive move above this level may open the path toward ₹209,485.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹198715- ₹209485.
- Silver dropped on profit booking after prices gained on tightening inventories, strong industrial demand.
- Industrial demand, especially from solar panels and electronics, continues to surge, which has created a persistent and growing supply deficit.
- Fed’s Williams said the U.S. central bank’s interest rate cut last week was the right move.
Crude oil prices edged higher by 0.22% to settle at ₹5,114, supported mainly by rising geopolitical tensions and fresh concerns over potential supply disruptions. Sentiment was lifted after the United States ordered a full shutdown of maritime traffic involving sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela, following the seizure of a blacklisted tanker. At the same time, Washington signaled tougher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, while the European Union added 41 more vessels to its sanctions list, intensifying scrutiny of Russia’s shadow fleet. Fundamentally, the market remains weighed by elevated global supply. OPEC+ continued to restore output, with group production rising to 43.06 million bpd in November, while non-OPEC producers, especially in the Americas, sustained strong output growth. The International Energy Agency continues to project a sizeable surplus in 2026, though it marginally narrowed its estimate to 3.84 million bpd, citing stronger demand growth and slightly lower supply expectations due to sanctions. In the US, crude inventories fell by 1.274 million barrels, exceeding expectations, with notable draws at the Cushing hub, providing near-term support. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 20.03% to 21,437 alongside a price gain. Immediate support is seen at ₹5,080, below which prices may test ₹5,045. On the upside, resistance is placed at ₹5,143, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward ₹5,171.
Market Analysis:
- Crude oil trading range for the day is ₹5045- ₹5171.
- Crude oil gains supported by rising geopolitical tensions.
- The US has ordered a full shutdown of maritime traffic involving sanctioned oil tankers operating to and from Venezuela.
- US crude oil inventories fell by 1.274 million barrels, following a 1.812 million barrel decline in the previous week
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
